There's a growing amount of excitement about the prospect of the political class giving in on the idea of a referendum on the UK's independence from the EU. Guido hints playfully that Labour might change their position to make life impossible for Dave.

But don't expect a fair fight, the wets and modernisers will spike the guns of the referendum before the campaign starts.

As the alternative Queen's speech on Conservative home hints the wets and modernisers have many tricks up their sleeves to keep the UK as a trophy for their Brussels masters. The Referendum on renegotiation is just the start of their creativity.

Any referendum in the current climate, especially one suggesting change is most likely to fail. Make it appear to be all about Angles dancing on the heads of euro-pins and the contempt from the public will be nuclear.

The political class know this and I think we can safely expect them to exploit it.

So we may finally get our referendum, but we won't like the question and we will like the answer even less.

Its going to be a much tougher and long term fight to liberate the UK from the EU than just a vote on a single day.

Fraser Nelson has a good article about how unwise David Cameron has been to pick a fight with his own activists in the mistaken belief that their a limitless supply of mindless valueless people to replace conservatives he's alienating by destroying marriage with his redefinition for triangulation plan.

But also on offer today is news of how some thugs are trying to intimidate the author of the Cramer blog, using the Advertising Standards Authority,  and the new thought crime of making someone else think you've been homophobic. Read it an weep here.

What this shows is that all the reassurances from Cameron and Clegg about the Church and other not being forced to change their view on marriage were the utter rubbish that the voters last week took them for.

It also shows that its time to repeal all this half baked legislation from Labour about "feelings" where someone can use their feelings to make someone else a criminal.

One of the reasons I hold a UKIP party card and not a Conservative one is that the Equality Act is still on a statue books.

Update: See the Law Society banning discussion of Marriage here ( which is legal and the basic pillar of our society for all its history ) . Note they are happy to debate illegal things like self murder.

Now this is going to be slightly off the wall, but its based on one of those "expressing yourself" ideas that some "artists" ( Guardian readers all no doubt ) have had.

They want to send tweets at a nearby star system that could have an earth like planet around it.

Why is this unwise ?

For the same reason we don't let our children talk to strangers, or indeed climb over the fence in the tiger enclosure to pat the nice kitty on the head.

Maybe ET is home, only he's not a cuddly BMX ridding alien who just wants to be our friend, but a technically advanced aggressive socio path who's evolutionary imperative has taught him ( don't even get me started on that ) to eliminate potential threats and ask questions later. ( Indeed if the Universe if full of life this type of alien probably fills it for reasons you can work out in about 1 minute of thought. )

And if ET does want to be our friend he'll wait a bit longer until we have the military capability to ensure he stays that way.

Sending out a message to the dark is insane, especially give that any answer is much more likely to be the growling of wolves closing in that the wonders of the Universe being given away for free. ( And just so we're straight - if ET can cover interstellar space for a fight then he's going to win hands down - there will be no "resistance movements" like on the TV/Hollywood. )

These artists are probably just talking to themselves, and we had all better hope so. But they don't have the right to put everyone at risk and should be stopped.

1. The Conservative share of the vote held up - the Lib Dem didn't:
         Con from 45%[2008] to 43%[2012] , Lib Dems 46%[2008] to 33%[2012]
           or to put it another way "Not winning here". ( Sorry couldn't resist that. )
2. Labour appear to have done better, but this is really all in the Maybury & Sheerwater ward where "local factors have dominated and personalities and other relationship ties perhaps trump politics.
        Lab from 5%[2008] to 15%[2012]
3. UKIP have more than doubled their vote almost everywhere they stood. Numbers in 2008 were at the level that straight mistakes in the polling booth might deliver, now this is no longer the case. If you assume that UKIP voters are mostly Conservatives this is going to start costing Woking Conservatives seats very soon. ( This is perhaps an assumption that can be applied only in part. UKIP also appeal to Labour voters strongly. )
      UKIP from 4%[2008] to 8%[2012]  ( which is 10% if you consider only those wards UKIP stood in)
   The UKIP vote is below the 14% that was reported nationally, but is on a clear upward trajectory in an election that UKIP would not normally expect to do well in.

Those critics of David Cameron and the Coalition in the Conservative party have tried their best over the last few days to get a hearing. The bad news for them is that Cameron thinks he has a public relations problem - and a bad attack of disloyalty ( which he will no doubt seek to sort out later ).

He's promising to work harder, refocus and not be swayed to the left or the right. Some of the stuff like making the traditional definition of marriage illegal and house of lords jobs for the Lib Dem boys scheme are delayed but not shelved ( already those who have the ear of government ministers who helped create this mess in the first place are busy whispering about not doing U turns ).

There's also some sort of relaunch in the offing.

Time to face up to the truth - Cameron's not going to start acting like a Conservative for any prolonged period. Time to consider your position folks.

The problem for the Lib Dems is that they just don't have that much support.

The truth is they borrow a lot of support. ( All that tactical voting - winning here stuff ).

Hence in government the votes they have borrowed from the now opposition have all moved to that opposition, but where they stand against Conservatives things have stood up - for now.

The Armageddon scenario for the yellow ones is if Labour become nationally credible, especially in the South. At that point their position, kept by borrowing Labour votes in the south, may collapse.

I think the commitment of Lib Dem activists to their hobby of getting elected is far too strong to let this happen. Hence I predict Nick Clegg and the Coalition are doomed.

UKIP seem to have achieved another growth in our voting base with media reports giving a 14% support where candidates stood.

The first past the post system means a lot of the progress is below the surface of numbers of elected representatives. But UKIP will now be changing the results of elections and the agenda set by UKIP must surely be addressed by the other parties.

Though early signs from the unelected Baroness Warsi suggest the Gadfly approach and insult are still the knee jerk response. ( That's the sort of attitude to Conservative core supporters that has helped UKIP to where it is today of course ).

From my personal perspective I'm committed to ideals, ideas and morals mostly found on the right of centre. I'm not married to the idea of any political party existing for ever. As Daniel Hannan has suggested the route for success for the right should be via  a merger between UKIP & The Conservative party, but that will mean the modernisers and wets will need to find a new home ( I hear the Lib Dems are short of self serving europhile hand ringers these days. ). But it won't happen any time soon as my guess is CCHQ will respond with bile.

My guess is we'll get a few more half baked Euro-Sausages from Cameron ( all approved as worthless scraps by Clegg et al ). They may even stall UKIP's advance for a while, but life long Conservatives like myself are getting into the habit of voting for UKIP - and a new reality will emerge from this over time.

See also Paul Nutall and the panel discussion about the rise of UKIP below and below that the ever reasonable Tim Montgomerie pointing out the danger of the short changing of the right that has lead people like me to leave the Conservatives for UKIP.






Even Guido is arguing for UKIP's agenda to be listened to and acted upon, though you need to be careful when Peter Mandelson starts suggesting a referendum on Europe as things are never straight forward with him.

A thought occurred to me whilst watching the obligatory election day pictures of party leaders and their wives voting.

What is Sam Cameron signally by her choice of colours to wear ? It was certainly not a safe choice. It is rumoured that she is not a conservative at all, and may be the reason that David Cameron sticks to such vote losing policies such as abolishing marriage and replacing it with the liberal elites alternative.

So wear the Lib Dem trousers to the polling station might be her sub conscious sending out a message.

OK I'm probably over doing this - but it begs the question and in this world of spin doctors and image consultants you have to wonder who let this question get asked ?